Metals Focus analysts remain bullish on gold: consolidating rather than turning bearish, with support near $4,000

According to Smart Finance APP, after a correction earlier this year, gold has struggled to sustain its rally. Matthew Piggott, Head of Gold and Silver at Metals Focus, said in an interview on Monday that this reflects competition for investment capital rather than a fundamental deterioration in gold’s long-term outlook. Piggott stated that whenever gold prices approach $4,000/oz, institutional investors consistently return to the gold market, “so we essentially have a bottom, and major central banks are a significant part of this.”

Piggott noted that the underlying economic and geopolitical factors supporting the gold price rally in 2025 have not disappeared; in fact, if anything, the ever-expanding government debt and fiscal uncertainty have actually strengthened the long-term case for investing in gold. He pointed out that massive government deficits, rising debt servicing costs, and uncertainty surrounding US policies are likely to continue driving funds away from traditional US dollar-denominated assets.

Analysts at Saxo Bank wrote in a report: “The market remains locked in a tug-of-war—on one side are macro-driven traders applying short-term selling pressure, while on the other, there is demand from investors less sensitive to interest rates, seeking safe havens amid multiple geopolitical and fiscal tensions.”

Investors are also waiting for next week’s release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders currently put the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged this month at 82.8%, while expectations for a rate hike in December remain at 90%.

On Monday, with the US dollar strengthening and yields rising, and oil prices narrowing earlier losses, gold futures edged lower. The front-month October Comex gold contract fell 0.5% to $4,139.00/oz, while October Comex silver dropped 2 cents to $56.974/oz.