Corporate buybacks restart: Is Wall Street's biggest buyer about to hit the buy button?

New share supply is limited, and the supply-demand balance has clearly tilted towards buybacks, providing strong technical support for the US stock market.

Written by: Zhang Yaqi, Wallstreetcn

The most important structural buyers in the US stock market are gearing up. As buyback blackout periods are lifted with earnings season ending, the corporate buyback window is quickly reopening. This core source of demand, which has long supported US equities, is about to make a strong comeback under a record-high authorized scale this year.

According to Goldman Sachs data, currently only 12% of S&P 500 companies are in an open buyback window, but by the end of this week an additional 22% will exit the blackout period. Since October, corporate buyback activity has been about 40% lower than the average daily level year-to-date, with suppressed corporate buying power facing a concentrated release window.

The background of this returning demand is particularly crucial: so far in 2026, corporate buyback authorization has reached a record-breaking $1.305 trillion—well above the $1.151 trillion in 2025 and previous historical peaks. At the same time, the amount of new shares coming to market is quite limited, with the supply-demand pattern clearly tilted towards buyback demand.

Buyback blackout suppresses buying, window reopening releases pressure

During earnings report disclosure periods, buyback blackouts caused this crucial market buyer to temporarily exit. Goldman Sachs data shows that, since October, corporate buyback activity has been roughly 40% below the daily average for the year, creating a clear gap. As blackout restrictions are gradually lifted, market expectations are that corporate buying demand will rapidly return toward normal levels.

According to Goldman Sachs buyback trading desk data, so far this week only 12% of S&P 500 companies are in an open buyback window, with another 22% set to exit blackout this week. This means, over the next few days, a substantial amount of buying power will re-enter the market, making up for the recent lack of corporate buying activity.

A record $1.305 trillion in authorized buybacks waiting to be deployed

The potential scale of corporate buybacks has never been bigger. According to Goldman Sachs’ Ranganath team, by now in 2026, total US corporate buyback authorization amount has reached $1.305 trillion, a year-over-year increase of about 13% from $1.151 trillion in 2025 and significantly exceeding any previous historical peak.

This record-breaking authorized scale means that entering the end of the year, companies have an exceptionally ample “ammunition reserve.” And this is not just on paper—actual buyback amounts by S&P 500 companies in the first half of 2026 rose by 15% year-over-year, with Q2 growth accelerating further to 20%, showing persistent execution strength.

Only $5.2 billion in new authorizations last week, but a wave of major announcements is expected

Current market attention towards buybacks has not been fully reflected in the news stream. According to Birinyi data, only five new buyback programs were announced last week, totaling about $2 billion—a comparatively low figure.

However, this situation is expected to change soon. As more companies complete earnings reports and exit blackout periods, the market expects a batch of large-scale buyback authorization announcements in the coming days. This will significantly increase related news coverage, and market perceptions of the scale of corporate buybacks may further rise.

New share supply is limited, and the supply-demand balance tilts towards buying

There have previously been concerns about potential increases in share supply, but Goldman Sachs’ assessment is relatively optimistic. Goldman Sachs estimates that in 2027, the total issuance of US stocks will account for less than 1% of the Russell 3000 market cap, presenting only limited dilution pressure for the market.

This means that as corporate buyback-driven demand continues to expand, the market does not need to contend with significant supply shocks. The relative strength of buyback buying is therefore even further enhanced. Structurally, this is a combination of strong demand and limited supply—providing robust technical support for US stocks from corporations themselves.