EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains near 1.1250, but bearish bias holds below 100-day average

The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory near 1.1245 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Nonetheless, the potential upside might be limited amid fiscal concerns in France. European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Fabio Panetta is scheduled to speak later on Thursday.

French 10-year borrowing costs climbed above 5% for the first time in 24 years on Wednesday as weekend unrest across France, fuelled in part by cuts to public services, has highlighted how politically difficult it will be to bring budget deficits under control.

"The euro cannot sell off—and it cannot rally," said Spectra Markets' president Brent Donnelly. "We are in a stalemate where the overhang of bad news just about perfectly offsets the market positioning,” Donnelly added.

The ECB is likely to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.5% next week, though a hike is all but priced in before the year's end, according to Reuters.

Across the pond, traders see only a small chance of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike next week, with the next interest rate increase expected in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Euro range holds as EUR/USD shrugs off gas spike and bond jitters

Analysts at Societe Generale highlight that, for EUR/USD, it is “curious that cycle highs in nat gas prices and bond jitters have not triggered another leg down in a way that would have occurred prior to October.” They note that “the correlations have broken down over the past two weeks or so,” with the pair no longer reacting in its usual fashion to swings in energy prices and bond markets. According to the bank, this “would suggest that most of the bad news is priced in or investors are not committed to putting on new directional trades, playing the ranges instead.”

Warsh cautious on policy path even as investment surge and AI optimism support Dollar

Fed Chair Warsh delivered a moderately constructive but less forceful message, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 5.6 versus a 6.1 historical average, signaling a slightly softer tone relative to the established baseline. The admission of being “over-scarred from the Global Financial Crisis” underscores a risk-averse bias, even as Warsh highlights a structural growth and investment surge and refuses to pre-commit on October and December decisions, keeping policy optionality high. Emphasis on AI’s demand-side impact and the need to “crystalize” data on output, employment, and inflation points to a cautious, data-dependent stance that tempers immediate hawkish expectations for the Dollar.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-elevated 127.51, confirming that the overall policy tone remains firmly in hawkish territory despite the slightly softer FXS Speechtracker score. The combination of a high FXS Fed Sentiment Index level and Warsh’s reluctance to pre-judge meetings suggests that markets should continue to price a restrictive bias, but without fresh hawkish escalation for the Dollar in the near term.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD retains a negative tone in the near term

In the daily chart, EUR/USD holds below the 100-day Moving Average and also marginally under the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average, keeping the near-term bias bearish despite a mild stabilization. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 42 stays below the neutral 50 line, which suggests that downside momentum is easing rather than reversing, leaving the pair capped by overhead moving-average resistance.

On the topside, immediate resistance level is located at the October 6 high of 1.1276, en route to the upper boundary of Bollinger band at 1.1372. A more significant barrier is located at the 100-day Moving Average around 1.1455, which would need to be reclaimed to ease the broader bearish pressure. 

On the downside, initial support level is seen near at the October 19 low of 1.1185, followed by the lower limit of Bollinger band at 1.1120. The key contention level to watch is the 1.1000 psychological level.