Bitcoin Price Chops After Strong US Jobs Report – Where Next for BTC?

Following the release of a stronger-than-expected US jobs report in September, the Bitcoin price has fluctuated between $61,000 and $62,000 as traders assess the economic outlook and geopolitical risks.

The US economy added 254,000 jobs in September 2024 , substantially surpassing Wall Street’s expectation of 147,000.

The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1%, while the annual pace of wage growth increased to 4.0% from 3.8% in August.

This stronger-than-expected jobs report prompted macro traders to largely eliminate bets on another 50bps rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November.

According to the CME Fed Watch Tool , money markets are now pricing a nearly 95% probability of a 25bps rate cut next month.

The report supports the narrative that a soft landing for the US economy is still achievable — meaning the Fed may succeed in bringing inflation under control without triggering a recession.

While this points to a slower pace of rate cuts , substantial cuts are still expected in late 2024 and 2025.

Continued robust US economic growth, alongside a more accommodative monetary policy, could create a favorable environment for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Despite the optimism, the Bitcoin price remains down by about 6.6% since the beginning of the week. Is a rebound on the horizon?

What’s Next for the Bitcoin Price After the US Jobs Report?

Geopolitical tensions continue to play a significant role in shaping the Bitcoin market and broader financial markets.

Israel is anticipated to retaliate against Iran after a missile attack earlier this week , raising fears of a broader conflict.

Such an escalation could severely disrupt oil flows from the Middle East, posing a major risk to the global economy and keeping risk appetite in check across markets, particularly in crypto.

Without the recent geopolitical tensions, this week’s US economic data could have fueled a strong Bitcoin rally, potentially pushing the price as high as $70,000.

However, due to the worsening geopolitical landscape, October may not see the typical “Uptober” surge that some market participants expected.

Polymarket users currently assign a 25% chance that Bitcoin reaches $70,000 this month , compared to a 42% chance it falls to $55,000.

Source: TradingView / BTCUSD

In contrast, Standard Chartered issued a note earlier this week warning that a short-term dip below $60,000 is likely, but encouraged investors to buy the dip.

Long-Term Outlook for the Bitcoin Price

Geopolitical events often have only a short-term impact on markets such as Bitcoin and US equities.

Longer-term drivers, like a global monetary policy easing cycle, could drive Bitcoin back to record highs later in 2024 or in 2025.

This scenario would align well with Bitcoin’s usual post-US election and delayed post-halving rally patterns.

While October may bring volatility, Bitcoin could still approach $100,000 in the coming quarters.