Most prediction market traders suffer losses, with only a few high-frequency trading bots making profits.

BlockBeats news, April 29, according to Bloomberg data, more than 100,000 accounts on the Polymarket platform have lost at least $1,000 each, which is nearly twice the number of accounts that have made a profit of the same amount. Meanwhile, a group of approximately 823 highly active accounts (with extremely large daily trading volumes, classified as BOT) collectively achieved around $131 million in profits. Apart from this group of highly active BOTs, all other traders have collectively lost $131 million.

The report points out that the prediction market, with annualized trading volume exceeding $50 billion and continuing to grow, is currently dominated by a handful of automated programs. For example, on Polymarket, wallets suspected to be BOTs, which account for only about 5% of the total wallets, contributed 75% of the platform’s trading volume. These BOTs engage in high-frequency diversified trading across different markets, entering earlier and at better prices, thereby securing higher returns. In contrast, ordinary traders, even if they correctly predict the trend, often execute trades late at unfavorable prices and ultimately end up losing money.

Research into recent market trends found that among traders analyzing public opinion and geopolitical events on platforms like Polymarket, 68.8% have been in a loss state since 2022. The data also shows that the user group with the most losses conducts more of their trading near extreme price levels (with odds below 10% or above 90%), while top earners have the lowest proportion of trades in this area.