Gold Price Breaks Through Short-term Resistance, Watch This Key Level

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新浪财经2026/05/06 08:04

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By:新浪财经

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On the fundamentals front, there were significant changes overnight, with the market watching whether the US-Iran agreement can be finalized, leading to rising expectations for easing tensions in the Middle East. International crude oil prices retreated and the geopolitical risk premium diminished. Meanwhile, the market expects a 96% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June, causing the US dollar index to fall slightly and giving international gold prices room for a rebound. However, attention should still be paid to the situation in the Middle East, as geopolitical uncertainties have not been completely eliminated.

Technically, boosted by the news, international gold prices surged sharply during the early session today, effectively breaking above the short-term downward trendline since April 17, disrupting the short-term bearish structure.

However, from a larger cycle perspective, gold is still constrained by the broader downward trendline formed jointly on January 29, March 10, and April 17. The upward trendline since August 22 of last year, which was breached on March 18, has also not yet been recovered. Although short-term moving averages still show a bearish arrangement, the price has climbed above the 5-day moving average. The Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, and gold has rebounded from the lower band, entering a short-term oscillation between $4,550 and $4,660 per ounce.

Key focus this week is on the $4,660 per ounce resistance level. If gold can effectively hold above $4,660

per ounce,

then a further upside target at $4,770

per ounce

is possible. If the rebound is blocked and falls back, support in the $4,550~$4,500

per ounce

range will be retested. Should there be a substantial breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, international gold prices are expected to break through the medium-term downtrend resistance.

In summary, after breaking the short-term downtrend, international gold prices have entered a consolidation phase and the downward rhythm has been disrupted, but the medium-term bearish structure has not yet reversed. Short-term traders should focus on the $4,550~$4,660

per ounce

range.

At 20:15 tonight, the US April private sector employment data (expected 99,000) will be released, which may increase market volatility.

Editor | Jiao Yang Layout | Jiao Yang Visual | Zhang Zongwei

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, causing the optimistic sentiment in the market last Friday to quickly reverse amidst the Middle East diplomatic stalemate. Brent crude oil rose over 2%, gold fell below $4,200, and silver dropped more than 4%. Asia-Pacific stock markets broadly declined, with South Korea's KOSPI falling over 2%. Global bond markets came under pressure, and the yield on the US 2-year Treasury rose to 4.90%. Market focus will shift to this week's PCE inflation data and the non-farm payroll report.

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