U.S. stocks move | Chip stocks surge across the board! The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rises over 3.5%, AMD and Broadcom jump more than 6%
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Goldman Sachs: Remain optimistic about the outlook of the refining industry; Valero Energy (VLO.US), Marathon Petroleum (MPC.US), HF Sinclair (DINO.US) are top picks
According to Zhihu Finance APP, ahead of the upcoming Q3 2026 earnings season for the US refining industry, Goldman Sachs has updated its earnings outlook for US refiners. Before the results release, Goldman Sachs, based on discussions with investors, is focusing on three key points of contention: (a) the outlook for mid-cycle profit margins after a tightening of global refining fundamentals and supply disruptions; (b) the price differential between light and heavy crude oil as supply from Canada and Venezuela increases; (c) capital allocation priorities, specifically how to balance maintaining a robust balance sheet, advancing internal growth projects, and returning value to shareholders.
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US Crude Oil: Range-bound volatility, buy on dips, sell on rallies
(1) Analysis: Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico are supporting a supply risk premium; however, signals of dialogue between the US and Iran are limiting further upside in oil prices, which are currently still in a low-level consolidation phase, mainly awaiting a stress test. (2) Key Focus: Geopolitical situation, inventory data, US dollar index, global crude oil supply, and OPEC+ policy. (3) Resistance: 91.00, 91.50, 92.00 (4) Support: 90.00, 89.00, 88.00
Spot gold: Range-bound fluctuations, sell on rallies, buy on dips
Reason for analysis: Spot gold rebounded near a two-month low, but the Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that most officials believe it may continue to raise interest rates this year. The strengthening of the US dollar and high US Treasury yields still exert pressure. The easing of tensions between the US and Iran has reduced some safe-haven demand. After technical indicators became oversold in the short term, there was a corrective rebound, but a reversal has not yet occurred, so the range-bound strategy is maintained. Key focus: US Treasury yields, US Dollar Index, geopolitical situation Resistance: 4200, 4230, 4270 Support: 4130, 4100, 4070
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